Twin Creeks is one of the most popular established neighborhoods in San Ramon with home styles ranging from 2 bedroom condominiums to 5 bedroom detached family homes.
Twin Creeks real estate values have increased more than most people would have predicted over the past few years but where will they go from here? Most economists agree that 2018 will be a good year for most California home owners but the Bay Area is something of a micro-economy. It therefore makes sense to consider areas here based on their individual make-up.
It is well-accepted that neighborhoods in west-side San Ramon (94583) appeal to a different type of home buyer to those on the east side (94582), which are mostly newer homes on small lots. But even on the west side, there are neighborhoods that appeal more than others. Twin Creeks is a prime example. So when considering home value trends it makes more sense to look at an individual neighborhood rather than a whole zip code.
Consider the table below that shows real estate activity from January 2016 through December 2018 for detached single family homes in Twin Creeks. The volume of sales is very consistent and the relationship between list price and sale price demonstrates the appeal of the area and this is certainly confirmed by the short average time on the market before a sale is agreed. And bear in mind that many sellers will not even consider an offer before the home has been on the market for 10 days or so.
How Long Will Prices Keep Increasing?
Extreme increases in sale prices are not sustainable for a long period and a correction is inevitable at some point. And 13.8% increase year on year would certainly be considered extreme. Many economists say that California as a whole can expect to see home values increase between 3% and 5% in 2018. To put this into real world terms, if you have a median priced home here, a 5% increase would give you over $50,000 in additional equity. Even a 3% increase would be over $30,000.
But don’t take these figures as gospel. There will be a correction at some point in the not too far distant future and it will come with little warning. Maybe in 2018, maybe not, but very likely before 2020 based on experience of past real estate cycles.